Bitcoin Poised for Gains Amid AI-Driven Bank Stress and Tax Refund Boost

By: Eliza Bennet

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, has issued a significant market warning, suggesting that a divergence between Bitcoin and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 may indicate underlying credit stress. According to Hayes, this disjointed movement is a sign that should be carefully investigated as it might hint at issues within bank balance sheets or lending flows. Hayes describes Bitcoin as a "fiat liquidity fire alarm," reacting swiftly to changes in credit conditions.

In recent years, artificial intelligence (AI) has been cited as a major factor behind layoffs amounting to approximately 55,000 jobs in 2025, primarily in the tech sector. Hayes envisions a domino effect where significant job cuts in knowledge-intensive roles could weaken mortgage and consumer credit repayments. This could potentially impact bank equity and consequently tighten lending, cascading into the wider financial system. While these figures are based on multiple assumptions, they illustrate how shocks to paychecks in the white-collar sector could disrupt the credit system.

Hayes anticipates a policy reaction from central banks if banking failures occur and credit markets freeze. He believes the Federal Reserve would potentially intervene with increased liquidity, a move likely favorable for Bitcoin's price trajectory. Historically, such actions have been correlated with crypto market rallies, a repeating motif in Hayes' analysis.

On a related note, Wells Fargo strategist Ohsung Kwon predicts that generous US tax refunds could revive interest in riskier investment assets, including Bitcoin and momentum stocks. With expected larger refunds in 2026, potentially up to $150 billion might flow into these assets by March, enhancing the "YOLO" trade sentiment. Kwon anticipates high-income consumers driving this surge by channeling additional savings from tax returns into equities.

As these unfolding scenarios suggest, a blend of AI-induced employment changes and enhanced consumer savings could bolster Bitcoin and other risk assets. While the outcomes are not assured, the potential for significant shifts in financial dynamics is compelling. Together, these developments highlight the interconnected nature of employment trends, monetary policy, and digital asset movements in today's financial landscape.

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