Standard Chartered's Revised Bitcoin Forecast Fuels ETF Outflows

By: Eliza Bennet

The momentum of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) centered around Bitcoin (BTC) continues to wane as Standard Chartered makes significant adjustments to its projections for the cryptocurrency. In a stark forecast shift, the bank has adjusted its Bitcoin price target for 2026 down to $100,000 from a former $150,000.

The latest actions by Standard Chartered, described in a Thursday note by their head of digital assets research Geoff Kendrick, reflect broader market sentiments and macroeconomic conditions. Amidst this backdrop, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced heightened selling pressure, accumulating $410.4 million in outflows recently. This has contributed to an ongoing streak of weekly losses now pegged at $375.1 million, marking the fourth consecutive week of declines. The assets under these ETFs, which reached a zenith of nearly $170 billion in October 2025, are now hovering near $80 billion.

A significant market metric highlighted by Kendrick indicates a decline of over 40% from Bitcoin's October peak, bringing prices to about $67,160. This downturn corresponds with approximately $8 billion lost in net outflows from the US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Critical factors underscoring this trend include the slowing momentum of the US economy and revised expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. This shifting landscape of investor behavior and concerns has further exacerbated Bitcoin's position in the market.

Despite the downturn, the correction appears controlled compared to past market downturns, according to Standard Chartered. On-chain data continues to demonstrate improved network usage. Yet, the bank warns that deteriorating macroeconomic conditions could incite further investor capitulations, maintaining pressure on BTC prices. Alongside Bitcoin, forecasts for Ethereum (ETH) have also been recalibrated, with the 2026 target price adjusted to $4,000, possibly hitting a low of $1,400.