Bitcoin Projected to Bottom at $35,000 Amid Bear Market Trends

By: Eliza Bennet

Bitcoin's current trend suggests a decline towards $35,000 by late 2026, shaped by insights from the latest projection models and technical analyses. An advanced cycle model, known as the Akiba Cycle Model v2, integrates historical drawdowns and halving cycles to forecast Bitcoin's price trajectory. This model, relying on extensive simulation and validation techniques, points to a 72.5% drawdown from a bull-market peak at $126,219. The anticipated timeline for reaching this cycle low coincides with past patterns, projecting a bottom around December 2026.

The robust framework behind this model dissects the Bitcoin cycle into distinct phases: the drawdown from its peak, the transition to its low, and the subsequent recovery leading to the next halving. Historical analysis indicates that drawdowns have progressively decreased with each cycle, from 94.1% in Bitcoin’s inception cycle to an anticipated 72.5% in the upcoming phase. Furthermore, the model calculates the time span from halving to cycle low—expected to be approximately 980 days following the April 2024 halving, marking a potential low near the end of 2026.

Complementary technical analysis by experts echoes these projections, with data indicating that Bitcoin recently entered bearish territory after breaching a significant support level at $107,000. This breakdown, marked in red on weekly candlestick charts, underscores Bitcoin’s shift away from prior bullish patterns. Key Fibonacci retracement levels further align with these forecasts, suggesting potential stabilization points at $44,000 and $35,000. Historically, Bitcoin's major corrections have exhibited similar depths, aligning well with these projections and reinforcing the likelihood of a market bottom around the $35,000 mark.

While the model and technical analysis agree on a path downwards, they also emphasize significant uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin's recovery trajectory post-cycle low. The potential for a resurgent market spans a wide range of outcomes, as reflected in the model's projected halving prices, from potential lows of $60,000 to highs near $489,000. This variability underlines the dynamics of crypto markets and serves as a reminder for market participants to remain vigilant of cyclic trends while navigating future investments.